BRCiS Consortium
URBANISE Project Pre-post Evaluation with Contribution Lens
Terms of Reference
Background and Context Information
1.1 BRCiS Consortium Overview
Building Resilient Communities in Somalia (BRCiS) is a consortium of national and international organizations – Action Against Hunger (ACF), Concern Worldwide (Concern), GREDO, the International Rescue Committee (IRC), KAALO, Save the Children, and Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) as lead agency. BRCiS’ objective is to work across the humanitarian-development divide, supporting marginalized communities in disaster-prone, rural Somalia to become more resilient to shocks and stressed, including as a result of climate change. BRCiS approach is contextually adaptive, focused on the specific shocks, needs, and priorities of individual communities. BRCiS was established in 2013 and is now implementing projects funded by multiple humanitarian and development donors in more than ten regions of Somalia[1].
BRCiS Consortium operates through three streamlined governance structures: (1) The Steering Committee (Country Directors and Consortium management team) provides strategic direction and high-level decision making, (2) The Consortium Management Unit (CMU) serves as the central coordinating body, responsible for business design, implementation coordination, technical support, monitoring and evaluation, quality assurance, compliance, due diligence, and reporting, while (3) Implementing Partners deliver programs on the ground - managing community engagement, field operations, monitoring, and quality assurance. This structure ensures both strategic oversight and effective implementation.
URBANISE leverages a broad spectrum of expertise, research and learning, and well-established governance structures, drawing from the successful BRCiS Consortium. This specific project led by Save the Children Danmark (SCD) and integrating the field-based presence and contextual expertise of Save the Children Somalia, NRC, and GREDO, each with deep local insights into the targeted locations.
URBANISE incorporates a unique governance arrangement for the BRCiS Consortium with SCD as the lead agency and shared consortium management responsibilities between NRC and Save the Children Somalia. This arrangement strategically enables BRCiS to benefit equally from the existing and extensive consortium management experience of the BRCiS Consortium and SCD’s deep experience working with Danish funding including a broad network of connections in Copenhagen that can provide additional profile to the project and open strategic advocacy pathways
1.2 URBANISE Project Context
Somalia faces East Africa's worst displacement crisis, with climate shocks and conflict driving mass urbanization (4.3% annual growth). Target cities exemplify these pressures: Baidoa (649,465 IDPs) battles malnutrition and floods, while Kismayo (187,479 IDPs) suffers land conflicts amid clan tensions. Burao confronts acute water scarcity, and Laascaanood struggles with post-conflict recovery. All locations share critical vulnerabilities: 70% youth unemployment, widespread illiteracy (48% of Baidoa's female IDPs lack basic numeracy), and insecure land tenure that discourages investment. Climate change intensifies these challenges – projected 2.5°C warming will worsen droughts and floods, with urban IDP settlements disproportionately exposed due to poor drainage and deforestation. Women and minorities face compounded barriers, including limited access to early warnings and financial services. However, emerging opportunities exist, including strong clan-based hosting traditions in Dhusamareb, a growing green economy (40+ solar firms nationally), and youth eager for skills training. The URBANISE project targets these systemic gaps through nature-based solutions, inclusive governance, and market-responsive livelihoods programming.
1.3 Overview of the URBANISE Project
The URBANISE (Urban Resilience Building through Adaptation and Inclusive Socioeconomic Empowerment) project represents a three and a half-year initiative (June 2025 to December 2028) funded by Danish Representation to Somalia and designed to contribute to urban resilience towards climate shocks across five Somali cities facing severe displacement pressures. The project is implemented by the BRCiS Consortium: Save the Children, Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) and GREDO in Baidoa, Kismayo, Dhusamareb, Burao, and Laascaanood. The project inception phase runs from June to December 2025, and the baseline is planned to commence within this period as detailed in section 5.
The project’s Theory of Change articulates a structured pathway for enhancing urban resilience by targeting three key outcomes: strengthening inclusive municipal governance systems to effectively advocate for and manage community-driven priorities that foster self-reliance (Outcome 1), expanding livelihood and financial inclusion opportunities for displaced populations (Outcome 2) and implementing nature-based solutions to mitigate climate risks and support individual wellbeing (Outcome 3). Through these interventions, URBANISE aims to contribute to enhanced self-reliance and adaptive capacity of urban and peri-urban communities, particularly internally displaced populations against climatic shocks (Objective).
2.0 Purpose, Scope and Objectives
2.1 Purpose
The URBANISE project will conduct pre-post longitudinal evaluation (baseline, midline, endline) to systematically measure changes in project logframe indicators among target communities over the project lifecycle, June 2025 to December 2028 . Using contribution analysis, the evaluation will assess the project’s role in observed results (both intended and unintended changes) while accounting for contextual factors, generating evidence to inform adaptive management, enhance accountability to stakeholders, and identify scalable approaches for future programming.
N.B: This evaluation adopts a longitudinal pre-post design (baseline-midline-endline) to systematically measure changes in logframe KPIs and assess URBANISE's contribution to observed outcomes through rigorous contribution analysis. Given the complex urban displacement context in Somalia and ethical considerations, the methodology deliberately focuses on: (1) tracking logframe key performance indicators (KPIs) progress against established targets; (2) analyzing the project's role alongside contextual factors; and (3) identifying lessons for adaptive management.
Baseline Survey Objectives
Midline Survey Objectives
Endline Survey Objectives
Together, these evaluations will: (1) identify the project's impact through rigorous contribution measurement; (2) identify contextual factors influencing effectiveness; and (3) generate evidence for scaling successful approaches. Findings will be utilized primarily by implementing partners for adaptive management, secondarily by policymakers for national strategy development, and ultimately by affected communities through participatory feedback mechanisms integrated at each phase.
2.2 Specific Midline and Endline Evaluation Objectives
As outlined in Annex 1, the URBANISE project established key performance indicators (KPIs) to measure progress toward its objectives. These KPIs will be benchmarked during the baseline survey and tracked longitudinally through midline and endline evaluations. This section defines the priority logframe KPIs and associated specific evaluation objectives to guide the midline and endline surveys. While these represent the core focus areas, the specific pre-post impact evaluation objectives, questions, methodology and tools will be further refined during the consultant inception phase.
2.3 Project Evaluator (Consultant) Scope of Work
BRCiS is looking to commission a consultant firm that will be responsible for the following key tasks:
3.0 URBANISE Project Pre-post Impact Evaluation and Contribution Analysis Methodology
The URBANISE project will employ a longitudinal, mixed-methods evaluation framework (baseline-midline-endline) to systematically track progress against logframe KPIs using a mix of data sources including household surveys with a panel of project participants, participatory community discussions (focus group discussions and Key informant interviews), and outcome analysis. Using contribution analysis approaches, the evaluation will assess the project’s contribution and role in observed outcomes while accounting for contextual factors and external actors’ influences. This design intentionally avoids claims of causal attribution due to ethical and operational complexities in Somalia’s fragile urban settings, instead focusing on measuring URBANISE’s contributions to climate resilience-building alongside broader systemic dynamics. The methodology prioritizes adaptive learning, with findings structured to inform real-time program adjustments and future interventions.
Consultants are encouraged to adapt and enhance the proposed pre-post longitudinal evaluation and contribution analysis methodology in their technical proposals, ensuring alignment with project objectives, logframe KPIs, and Somalia's urban displacement context while meeting the key proposed methodology concepts in this ToR., which will subsequently be reviewed by the Consortium for alignment with project objectives mentioned in this ToR, donor requirements, and BRCiS impact evaluation standards. The selected approach will emphasize methodological rigor while ensuring relevance to urban displacement contexts. Below are some hints of the methodology.
3.1 Mixed method Data Collection:
3.2 Analysis Framework:
Project pre-post Impact measurement methods (e.g., study design, sample sizes, data collection methods, analysis framework) proposed by the consultants in their technical proposal will be refined in the inception report, pending stakeholder consultations.
4.0 Key Deliverables
Key deliveries from the consultant include: -
Note: All final reports will be delivered in English, with specific formatting details finalized during inception and deliverables will undergo quality review against BRCiS and donor requirements and quality standards. All deliverables will be formatted according to the BRCiS brand charter.
5.0 Time frame for the evaluation process
Evaluation Phases & Key Activities
Phase 1: Inception
Timeframe: Sept – Dec 2025
Key Tasks
- Desk review: project docs and other relevant docs
- Impact Evaluation Methodology design
- Urban Climate Resilience index design
- Data collection tools
- Data quality assurance guidelines
- Stakeholder engagement
- Training BRCiS Members on baseline survey tools
Deliverables
Inception Report including URBANISE impact measurement framework, Climate resilience index and data collection tools (approved by BRCiS and donor)
- Training materials for BRCiS Members
Phase 2: Baseline
Timeframe: Jan to March 2026
Key Tasks
- Baseline data collection (Jan 2026 and to be done by BRCiS)
- Baseline data quality check and data cleaning
- Baseline data analysis and Report
- Stakeholder validation
- Dissemination Workshop
Deliverables
- Baseline Report
- Executive Summary
- Slide decks
- Raw datasets and analysis files
- Dissemination workshop
- Learning Brief
Phase 3: Midline
Timeframe: Jan to March 2027
Key Tasks
- Refresher training of BRCiS Members on the evaluation survey tools
- Midline data collection (Jan 2027 and to be done by BRCiS)
- Midline data quality check and data cleaning
- Midline data analysis and Report
- Stakeholder validation
- Dissemination Workshop
Deliverables
- Midline Report
- Executive Summary
- Slide decks
- Raw datasets and analysis files
- Dissemination workshop
- Learning Brief
- Updated ToC/assumptions
Phase 4: Endline
Timeframe: Jan to March 2029
Key Tasks
- Endline data collection (Nov to Dec 2028 and to be done by BRCiS)
- Endline data quality check and data cleaning
- Endline data analysis and Report
- Stakeholder validation
Deliverables
- Endline Report
- Executive Summary
- Slide decks
- Raw datasets and analysis files
- Learning Brief
Phase 5: Knowledge Dissemination
Timeframe: May 2029
Key Tasks
- Final project impact evaluation (endline) dissemination
- Knowledge-sharing
- Policy briefs (for govt/donors)
Deliverables
- Endline Report
- Learning/Summary briefs
- Presentation slides
N.B: All the above table timelines are tentative and may change during the inception phase
6.0 Management Arrangements and Workplan
Roles & Responsibilities
7.0 Estimated duration of the contract
A single contract will cover all phases (baseline-midline-endline) with phase-specific deliverables outlined in Section 5. The engagement is projected to commence in August 2025 and conclude in May 2029; however, work will not be continuous over this whole period of time.
8.0 Official travel involved
The selected consultant is required to travel to Mogadishu, Somalia to facilitate the below sessions in person:
The Consultants will cover all travel and accommodation costs including visa, tax, flight costs, accommodation and meals, and NRC will support in-country transportation, security and administrative support for international firms only. All travel and accomodation and travel related budget should be included in the financial proposal.
9.0 Application Procedures and Requirements
The interested consulting firms are expected to provide the following documentation:
Qualifications or specialized knowledge and/or experience required from the team members and the firm
Annexes
Annex 1: Summarized URBANISE Project Result Framework (KPIs)
URBANISE’s impact will be evidenced by 80% of participants increasing by at least two steps on the 5-step economic Self Reliance index and 60% of target neighborhoods demonstrating enhanced climate resilience and wellbeing.[1] The below table summarizes outcome indicators and targets;
Indicator/Target – All indicators will be disaggregated by location, age, and gender as applicable
1.1 Government capacity on human capital development for rural-urban market linkages is enhanced (this is a qualitative indicator that will be evidenced through case studies)
1.2. Government capacity on application of nature-based solutions in urban settlements is enhanced (this is a qualitative indicator that will be evidenced through case studies)
2.1. 40% increase in participating DAC residents who report that their overall household income has increased 'moderately or significantly', disaggregated by location, gender and age group (youth, adult, elderly)
2.2. 30% increase in bonding, bridging, and linking social capital, disaggregated by location, age and gender
2.3. 80% of SHG members reporting improved financial literacy/business skills by location, age and gender
2.4. Market system actors are more open to business engagement with minorities, women and youth living in DACs (this is a qualitative indicator that will be evidenced through case studies)
3.1. 70% of urban and peri-urban DAC residents reported learning a new skill to anticipate climate-related shocks disaggregated by location, age and gender
3.2. 60% urban and peri-urban DAC residents reporting that they anticipated the most recent shock that they experienced by location, age and gender
3.3. 50% decrease in # of households using "severe", "crisis" or "emergency" coping strategies as per Livelihoods Coping Strategies Index (LCSI) by location, gender and age
[1] Considering the lack of available measures for urban climate resilience, BRCiS is planning to develop a context-specific Urban Climate Resilience Index specifically for URBANISE. The index will be a composite measure assessing household resilience to climate-related disasters through several sub-indicators (exact methodology TBD, including in consultation with the RDE), including access to climate-resilient infrastructure, local adoption of sustainable practices, income stability, access to early warning systems, food security, mental health, and social support, disaggregated by location and gender.
[2] https://www.refugeeselfreliance.org/sri
[3] This is a composite index and will assess household resilience to climate-related disasters using several sub-indicators—such as access to climate-resilient infrastructure, adoption of sustainable practices, income stability, early warning systems, food security, mental health, and social support—disaggregated by location and gender. The exact methodology will be developed by this ToR consultant in consultation with the project team and the RDE
[4] BRCiS possesses established outcome harvesting (OH) templates and tools, along with practical experience in their application. The consultant’s role involves reviewing and refining these existing OH tools to ensure alignment with the project’s pre-post evaluation objectives. Following this, BRCiS members will undertake necessary data collection and preliminary reporting, with the consultant providing technical support throughout the OH process. Subsequently, the consultant will extract key outcomes and findings from the Members’ OH reports and integrate them into the final pre-post evaluation reports, including midline and endline assessments
Consultants or firms that meet the above requirements are invited to download the complete tender documents free of charge from the Digital Procurement System (DPS). Eligible applicants must submit a comprehensive administrative, technical, and financial proposal via the NRC Digital Procurement System (DPS) not later than 12th August 2025 at 11:59PM.
https://eaydps.nrc.no/tender/details/9f81dc02-3ebb-4d86-864f-3668faa8d7e2
If you have any technical difficulties in accessing the tender documents, please contact the following email address: so.procurement@nrc.no for assistance, considering that NRC will not share the bids via email as all bidders must Register and download the tender documents from the Digital Tendering System.